STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT

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Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior José Luiz Pereira de Rezende Mario Javier Ferrua Vivanco Antônio Donizette de Oliveira Luís Antônio Coimbra Borges

Abstract

This study analyzed the time for a country to survive exporting pulp, using a Cox regression model. Covariates being used included data about population, Gross Domestic Product, total exports of forest products as an aggregate, pulp production and balance of trade for pulp, economic markets and blocks, and geographic regions. To select and check the most significant covariates, a proposal formulated by Collet (1994) was used. It was concluded that survival analysis via the Cox regression model proved to be a powerful tool for predicting the survival of a country exporting pulp; around 80% of countries that have pulp in their list of exports continue to export the commodity; out of the fifteen covariates selected for fitting the Cox model, four explain the model and two were found significant in explaining the survival of a country exporting pulp; international trade agreements were more significant in the Cox regression model than classes of macroeconomic forest indicators and geographic location; covariates explaining the odds of a country exporting pulp to survive, according to the hazard ratio, were, in descending order, integration between ECLAC and European Union, be a member of the European Union (V07) and be a member of ECLAC (V6); Brazil has 3.5 times as much chance of survival exporting pulp through an integration between ECLAC and the European Union than a country that is not a part of such integration; the probability that Brazil will survive exporting pulp is greater than the probability that Asian countries will.

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How to Cite
COELHO JUNIOR, Luiz Moreira et al. STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT. CERNE, [S.l.], v. 18, n. 4, p. 547-555, apr. 2016. ISSN 2317-6342. Available at: <http://www.cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/854>. Date accessed: 25 june 2019.
Keywords
Forest economics, survival analysis, Cox model.
Section
Article